Why Ruto is pushing for Kalonzo to be Raila's running mate

Last week after IEBC handed the political parties an extension on the deadline to appoint their running mates, Azimio's presidential candidate Raila Amollo Odinga and the Azimio's governing council Led by President Uhuru Kenyatta, set up a seven-member committee to deliberate and come up with a suitable person to deputize him. The committee headed by Junet Mohamed has the mandate to interview and screen all interested parties to the post. No sooner had this announcement been made than Kalonzo Musyoka Started throwing tantrums like a 2-year-old boy demanding some PlayStation from the dad. Ever since Kalonzo Musyoka joined Azimio, he has been making demands after demands. First, it was the name change, to which the Azimio principals Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga agreed, then came the incessant demand for the running mate's post. I still believe the Azimio brigade shouldn't have agreed on this first demand by kalonzo in the first place. This only opened an avenue for more demands and the worst thing is Kalonzo has not held even a single rally to drum up support for Azimio, not even while Raila was away on the US tour.

Also read: Is Ruto suffering from a split personality?

Then there is the UDA side that seems to be crying more than the bereaved. Deputy President William Ruto seems to have sent his brigade both on social media and at funerals with one simple message; cry for Kalonzo to be Raila's running mate. They seem desperate to have the man from Tseikuru as the designated number two for the Azimio Coalition One Kenya Alliance Party. ( this name is too long to even say it let alone write it). Speaker after speaker and blogger after blogger, all have one message, Kalonzo, kalonzo, kalonzo. Makes One wonder to what end are they pushing this? "If they don't appoint Kalonzo, we, UDA will beat them very early in the morning" seems to be the message by all these UDA proponents of the 'Kalonzo Musyoka for running mate', narrative. When you see your competitor trying to influence your choice of players then just know that they are obviously trying to choose the weakest of them for you, and only a fool can fall for such kind of tricks.

Ruto and Kalonzo share a light moment.

Wouldn't it be UDA's delight if they won this election easily? Why then would they purport to 'advise' their opponents against choosing a different running mate other than Kalonzo Musyoka? Why would they invest so much of their time and money to influence the selection of Azimio's running mate? Unless of course, there is one candidate that scares the hell out of them. The one super running mate that if Raila were to appoint it will be game over for the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. In my opinion, Ruto is scared shit of Raila appointing a running mate from the vote-rich mount Kenya region. He knows for sure that if this happened then Raila, with the state machinery helping him on the other hand, would be having one leg in Statehouse before even Kenyans go to the polls. Mount Kenya votes are three times more than the Kamba votes which whether Kalonzo is Raila's running mate or not, are already in the Azimio basket. 

Also read: Why Ruto and Uhuru will never see eye to eye

It is with this in mind that Ruto set out elaborate political machinations to influence this process and if for some reason he fails to have Kalonzo appointed as the Azimio's running mate then he would have planted a seed of discord in azimio that will see either a disgruntled Kalonzo storm out of Azimio with his side of One Kenya Alliance and run as an independent candidate thus splitting Azimio's Kamba votes and hopefully get more votes beyond kambaland. This will have dented Raila's votes and if he were to win the elections then he might not attain the prerequisite 50 + 1 votes to win in the first round forcing a runoff. He will then woe a disgruntled Kalonzo in the runoff and beat Azimio. This is a well-thought-out plan if it is worked out by the book. The problem is, it's too dependent on the happenings on the Azimio side, which Ruto cannot fully control or influence, he can only hope Azimio falls into his trap.

Ruto has his own headache of this running mate issue in Kenya Kwanza Alliance, that he hopes to manage quietly. Rigathi Gachagwa who was the first to join Ruto in his quest to succeed his boss feels entitled to be the running mate and doesn't want to entertain any thought or mention of the Johnie-come-lately Musalia Mudavadi's name who is also interested in the running mate's position. If Ruto settles for Rigathi then he is sure to lose the western vote basket, which traditionally has been Raila's anyway, and if he appoints Madvd as he is popularly known, then again he loses the Mount Kenya votes but might get a fraction of the western votes. It is not guaranteed that if Madvd is his running mate he will automatically get the Western votes, it will be a gamble, a big one. He is between a rock and a hard place. Damned if he does damned if he doesn't. 

Raila only needs to appoint one of these three candidates to ensure he has one of his legs in State House, Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth, or Sabina Chege. I believe it's time for the first female Deputy President and so that eliminates Kenneth and leaves Martha Karua and Sabina Chege. One of this two is going to be Raila's running mate and eventually the first female Deputy President. Each one has her own advantages, If Raila goes for youth then Sabina it is and if he goes for experience then Martha it is. Let us wait and see. The jury is still out on this one.