What role does ethnicity play in kenyan politics

This August on 9th, Kenyans will be going to the polls to elect their leaders from MCAs to the topmost position of the President. The effects of ethnicity cannot be underscored in these elections. The current President, a Kikuyu, Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta is ineligible to run, but he is supporting his erstwhile political rival Raila Amollo Odinga, a Luo, who is in a fierce battle with Uhuru's deputy William Samoei Ruto,  a Kalenjin. Uhuru has not told Kenyans why he supports Raila and not Ruto. Could this be the ethnicity factor?

Photo. Courtesy 

This year's elections like any other election anywhere in the world will be influenced by several factors, key among them campaign funds and many others. But one factor will stand out the most. Ethnicity! This is perhaps the most influential factor in Kenya's elections in basically all the elections Kenya has had since independence. 

Kenya has had 4 presidents since independence and they have only come from two tribes. In a country that has more than 45 tribes and in almost 60 years, having 4 presidents from only two tribes could be seen by many as a factor that might be very influential in this year's general elections. The president himself alluded to it sometime back during the burial of Musalia Mudavadi's mother, saying that this country cannot be led by only two tribes and that it's time for other tribes to lead this country, amid cheers from the mourners. Some have even gone further to ask Ruto not to run since the former President the late Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi was from his tribe.

Photo: Courtesy.

This could explain why there is a fierce battle for votes from the major tribes in Kenya especially the vote-rich Mt Kenya region which will not be fielding a presidential candidate in this year's general elections. The other tribe with a huge number of registered voters is the Luhya community that comes from the western part of Kenya. It is assumed that's why Ruto made sure he bagged Mudavadi's support and his ANC party to ensure the regional arithmetic added up. It is rumored he planned and funded Mudavadi's 'earthquake' at the Bomas of Kenya early this year.

On the other hand, in the same quest, Raila is also wooing Mt Kenya and other major tribes aiming to achieve the same goal as his major competitor William Ruto. Raila presumably has his political bedrock Nyanza, Nairobi, the coast, part of Mt Kenya, Western, and presumably part of the rift valley. While Ruto has the Rift Valley, part of Mt Kenya, part of western to some point, part of North Eastern among others. All this is based on some tribal arithmetic aimed at giving each side a win in the 2022 general elections.

The Kenyan people have always voted on tribal lines and seemingly this year's elections won't be any different. Politicians in a very subtle way whip up tribal emotions and cards and pretend to be running an issue-based campaign. The electorate has always allowed themselves to be led down this road and eventually when post-election violence occurs, like the one of 2007 post-election violence, caused by such divisive tribal politics, it's they that end up suffering as these politicians go back to dining and wining together in high-end cafes despite their political differences.

Kenyans should shun these tribal politics but as it stands now seems like this is a long way to go. It will take a while and some serious, deliberate, civic education from a willing and dedicated government to have these tribal politics washed out of the Kenyan electorate's system. For now and in this year's elections, the tribe is a major deciding factor and this is what will make or break Raila's or Ruto's dream, and they very well know it.